Overview of Percentages Forecasting (for Table Select Environments)

• About Percentages Forecasting
• What is the Calculation that is Performed?
• Note the Following
• Diagrams: How it All Fits Together for Percentages Forecasting
• FAQs:
  • Does percentage forecasting take into account the therapeutic substitute items that are extended for a recipe?
  • Are the serving numbers for personal menu items, fallback substitutes, or specific substitutes affected by the percentages forecasting method?

About Percentages Forecasting

Percentages forecasting uses a calculation to generate the number of servings to be produced per menu item. Percentages forecasting is for accounts with resident profiles with the table select service type (i.e., restaurant service environment) because its calculations take the guess work out of predicting how many items your diners will order when they sit down. In the system, percentages forecasting is applied to a menu with choices, which is commonly used in table select environments.

• In your MealSuite account, the percentages forecast method must be configured with default percentages, and then can be applied to a menu with choices. See Configuring the Percentages Forecast Method to configure the Percentages Forecast Method with default percentages, and Scheduling a Menu to apply the Percentages Forecast Method to a menu with choices.
   
• The percentages forecast method allows you to configure "forecast exceptions" with different default percentages for a special event menu, an also available (AA) menu, and a liquid menu. See Creating "Forecast Exception" for Special Event, an Also Available, or a Liquid Menu to create a forecast exception. 
   
• Another forecast method, the "set method by meal" forecast method, allows you to configure separate sets of default percentages for individual meal periods (breakfast, lunch, dinner) and snack times (snack am, snack pm, snack hs). See Configuring Forecasting for Individual Meal Periods/Snack Times to configure individual meal periods and snack times with separate sets of default percentages, and Scheduling a Menu to apply the set method by meal forecast method to a menu with choices.

What is the Calculation that is Performed?

You configure percentages forecasting by entering default percentages for the choices, which is used in the calculation to determine serving amounts. The calculation is as follows:

Choice percentage multiplied by the dining area census = servings.

For example, assume you have 40 people in your dining area census, and for the beverage category you know that 75% of people will select choice 1 (orange juice) and 25% of people will select choice 2 (grapefruit juice). The calculation to generate the results for production is as follows:

• 75% (choice 1 percentage) x 40 (dining area census) = 30 servings of orange juice.
• 25% (choice 2 percentage) x 40 (dining area census) = 10 servings of grapefruit juice.

Note that the dining area census in your MealSuite account includes the following:

• Number of residents assigned the table select service.
• Optionally, the number of residents/patients assigned the advance ordering service.
• Dining area(s) set up with manual census.

Note: The dining area census also takes into account the diet orders (diet type/texture type combinations) assigned to the residents so that production also knows the substitute therapeutic items to produce. Click here for more info. 

Note the Following:

• When a menu is assigned percentages forecasting, you will then have the ability to adjust the default percentages with custom percentages, which generates new serving amounts. The ability to adjust your percentages allows you to make the forecasting more accurate as you learn the popularity of the menu items during your menu cycles. See Adjusting Forecasting Percentages for a Menu Item or Overview of a Forecasting Worksheet > Adjusting Percentages.
   
• You can enter percentage numbers that equal more than 100%, so as to “pad” or “buffer” your serving numbers accordingly.
   
• If needed, you can manually adjust the auto-calculated serving amounts, which is done on the forecasting worksheet. When you adjust the serving amounts, the forecasting worksheet will lock, meaning any forecasting auto-calculation no longer updates the worksheet so as to not override the manually-adjusted amounts. See Manually Adjusting Serving Amounts on a Worksheet for more information.

Diagrams: How it All Fits Together for Percentages Forecasting

The first diagram below illustrates how the Percentages Forecast Method is applied to a menu with choices and is pulling the census for its calculations. (Right-click image to open in new tab for actual size).

The second diagram below illustrates how the Percentages Forecast Method can be set up with forecast exceptions with different default percentages to apply to a special event menu, an also available (AA) menu, and a liquid menu (right-click image to open in new tab for actual size).

The third diagram below illustrates how individual meal periods and snack times can be configured with separate sets of default forecasting percentages via the Set Method By Meal Forecast Method. 

As noted, the census includes following:

• Number of people assigned the table select service.
• Optionally, the number of people assigned the advance ordering service.
• Dining area(s) set up with manual census.

The connections shown in the diagrams are listed below, each linking to its respective help topic.

• Table select and advance ordering service types are assigned to people profiles.
• People profiles are assigned to dining area(s) that allow people profile assignments.
• Dining area(s) with people profiles are assigned to the menu service location (MSL).
• Dining area(s) with manual censuses can also be assigned to the MSL.
• A menu with choices is assigned to the MSL when that menu is scheduled.
• Forecasting is assigned to a menu when that menu is scheduled.
• Create “Forecast Exception” for Special Event, an Also Available, or a Liquid Menu.

FAQs:

Does percentages forecasting take into account the therapeutic substitute items that are extended for a recipe?

Yes. The percentages forecasting takes into account the therapeutic substitute items that are extended for a recipe. For example's sake, assume the following: 

• 50% forecasting is applied to choice 1.
• 50% forecasting is applied to choice 2.
• Diet order census: 14 residents are assigned the regular diet/texture type, and 4 residents are assigned the regular diet/pureed texture type. 

The percentages forecasting is calculated as follows for the pureed (PU4) items: 

Are the serving numbers for personal menu items, fallback substitutes, or specific substitutes affected by the percentages forecasting method?

No. Personal menu items, fallback substitutes, and specific substitutes do not have their serving numbers adjusted by the percentages forecasting method.